Putin is challenging Ukraine's "Right to Existence"

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a series of demands to the West, including that Ukraine is never allowed to join Nato.

Russia may deny any invasion plans but has already voiced a series of demands from Western countries that may not be met. What happens next could jeopardize the whole of Europe's security system.

U.S. President Joe Biden said in Jan 19, 2022, thinks Russia will invade Ukraine, and warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that he would "regret his actions," following months of tensions.

Ukraine is addressed as “tool” by president Putin.

Russia has recruited about 100,000 troops across its border with Ukraine in the past few months. In mid-January, Russia began deploying troops to Belarus, a country bordering Russia and Ukraine, in preparation for joint military exercises in February.

NATO allies, fearing Russia might invade, have backed Kyiv by sending more troops and military equipment to Ukraine. The coalition says its move is in response to Russia's military intervention on the Ukrainian border.

President of Russia, Vladimir Putin

Why is there a conflict?

Ukraine, which was part of the Russian Empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic, achieved independence as the USSR broke up in 1991. It went on to give up its Russian imperial legacy and forge increasingly close ties with the West.

A decision by Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to reject a union agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Moscow sparked widespread protests that ousted him as leader in 2014.

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and threw its weight behind a separatist insurgency erupting in Ukraine's east.

Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to support the rebels. Moscow denies this, saying that those who joined the separatists were Russian volunteers.

According to Kiev, more than 14,000 people have been killed in the fighting that devastated the Donbass, Ukraine's eastern industrial region.

For its part, Moscow has strongly criticized the US and its NATO allies for providing arms to Ukraine and conducting joint exercises, saying such moves would allow Ukrainian hawkers to retake rebel-held areas by force. encourage you to try.

In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO is a red line, and expressed concern about plans by some NATO members to establish military training centers in Ukraine. He has said it will allow Ukraine to gain a military foothold in the region without even joining NATO.

What does Russia want?

It's more about what Russia doesn't want. Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO – and has said as much in its list of security demands sent to the US last December. The demands include stopping any NATO exercises near Russia's border.

Many of these ultimatums have been described by the West as non-starters. It also wants NATO to withdraw from Eastern Europe. In December, Putin said Russia was seeking guarantees "that would exclude further NATO advances to the east and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in the close vicinity of Russian territory".

Putin gave the West the opportunity to engage in concrete dialogue on the issue, adding that Moscow would need not only verbal assurances, but also "legal guarantees".

“Let's imagine Ukraine is a Nato member and starts these military operations. Are we supposed to go to war with the Nato bloc? Has anyone given that any thought? Apparently not” Vladimir Putin, Russian President

Ukraine's entry into the coalition would require the unanimous approval of the 30 states that make up the body.

“We will take adequate military and technical actions in response,  we will react though for unfriendly steps .we have every right to do so. We have every right to take actions aimed to ensure the security and sovereignty of Russia.”by President Putin.

The US and NATO have now answered the call. While neither Moscow nor the Western powers have gone public with the details of those responses, it has been clarified that Russia's main demands – Ukraine essentially banned from being a NATO member – and a promise that the coalition Will not expand further east - has been turned down.

Will Ukraine join NATO?

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but it wants to be. It is considered a partner of the alliance.Before being considered for membership, NATO says, Kiev needs to root out crises like corruption.

In December NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Russian demands to scrap a 2008 commitment to Ukraine that the country would one day become a member. Stoltenberg says that when the time comes to consider the issue, Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession.

However, analysts say NATO allies, the United States chief among them, are reluctant to expand their military footprint in the region and further jeopardize their ties with Moscow.

While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has voiced support for Ukraine's membership in NATO, President Joe Biden has been more vague on the question.

How big is the risk of invasion?

Russia says it has no plans to attack Ukraine: and the head of the armed forces, Valery Gerasimov, also denounced reports of an impending invasion as a lie.

The Secretary General of NATO has warned that the risk of conflict is real, but US officials have insisted they do not believe Russia has decided to attack, and that it is not imminent. Ukraine's president has appealed to the West not to spread "panic".

However, President Vladimir Putin has threatened "appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures" if they continue with the West's aggressive approach.

The US says Russia has given no explanation for troops deployed close to Ukraine - and thousands of Russian troops have flown to Belarus, close to Ukraine's northern border, for exercises.

Russia's deputy foreign minister compared the current situation to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the US and Soviet Union drew closer to a nuclear conflict.

Western intelligence suggests there could be a Russian incursion or invasion sometime in early 2022. President Biden's top military official, General Mark Milley, said the Russian military would have a large number of casualties on the scale and fighting in urban areas would be fierce.

Russian TV has shown pictures of tank exercises close to the border with Ukraine.

Will there be all-out war?

The West is accusing Russia, which has amassed 100,000 troops along Ukraine's border, preparing to attack its pro-Western neighbour.

Biden claims "total consensus" on how to deal with Russia. The Pentagon has put 8,500 US troops on standby for Eastern European deployment and NATO said it was sending ships and jets to strengthen the region's security.

President Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said these actions had added to the already tense atmosphere.

"The United States is escalating tensions," he told reporters. "We are watching these US actions with great concern."

Russia denied that it had any plans to invade Ukraine and accused the West of worsening the situation.

It is uncertain whether a war will break out between the two countries, but some analysts say that Russia is likely to claim a quick, decisive victory in future talks about NATO expansion and spheres of influence, and to increase its bargaining power. For Ukraine can move on.

"I think what Russia and Vladimir Putin will actually do is to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces in the field, deliver a crushing military defeat that humiliates Ukrainians and, by extension, raises concerns that Ukraine will receive support from its allies in the West." What is getting, said Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, is "the US and the UK are inadequate."

Russia forcibly annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, establishing new Ukraine and Russian borders.

What happens if Russia invades Ukraine?

Western countries have extended their support to Ukraine, but some responses have been harder than others. The US and Britain have supplied weapons, while Germany plans to send to a field medical facility next month, but will not transfer military equipment.

There has also been much discussion of sanctions aimed at punishing Moscow. Publicly, US and European allies have promised to affect Russia as economically as never before if Putin rolls his forces into Ukraine. Leaders have given few details, arguing that it is best to keep Putin guessing, but Washington and London have spoken of individual measures targeting the Russian president. Pulling Russia out of the SWIFT financial system, which moves money from bank to bank around the world, could be one of the most difficult financial moves, which could damage Russia's economy both immediately and in the long run.

The move could cut Russia from most international financial transactions, including international profits from oil and gas production, which account for more than 40 percent of the country's revenue.

The US has one of the most powerful financial weapons against Putin if it invades Ukraine – blocking Russia from access to the US dollar.

The dollar still dominates financial transactions around the world, with trillions of dollars in play daily. Finally, the US is considering imposing export controls, potentially cutting Russia off from high-tech, which helps fly and powers warplanes and passenger jets, among other things. Smartphones.

How far will the West go for Ukraine?

The US and other NATO allies have made it clear that they have no plans to send combat troops to Ukraine, but are offering support. The Pentagon has put 8,500 combat-ready troops on alert and is deploying an additional 3,000 troops to Germany, Romania and Poland.

The main tools in the West's arsenal seem to be sanctions and military aid in the form of advisory and weapons. Poland has offered a range of surveillance drones, mortar bombs and portable air-defense systems. The UK, Denmark, Canada, the Czech Republic and the Baltic republics have also offered security assistance.

President Biden has threatened Russia's leader with "like he's never seen" measures if Ukraine is invaded. So what will they include?

The ultimate economic hit would be the disconnection of Russia's banking system from the international SWIFT payment system. It has always been viewed as a last resort, and there are concerns that it could badly affect the US and European economies.

Another major threat is blocking the opening of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany, and approval for this is currently being decided by Germany's energy regulator.

President Biden has also warned that he will consider personal sanctions on Vladimir Putin if Russia attacks Ukraine. The UK also warned that "the people in and around the Kremlin will have nowhere to hide".

The Russian and US have spoken several times via video link and over the phone .

What would a deal look like?

So far Russia has not been affected by the Western response to its demands.

But where the West is looking for a possible deal may be indicated by a leaked document sent to Moscow by the US and NATO.

In it, the US says it may be ready to begin talks on limiting short- and medium-range missiles, as well as offering to negotiate a new START treaty on intercontinental missiles.

Washington will also assure that it has no cruise missiles as part of a "transparency mechanism" in Poland or Romania, with Russia providing assurances at two Russian missile bases.